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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 41

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The smoothing constant is a weighting factor used in ________.

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exponentia...

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Question 42

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The two general approaches to forecasting are:

A) qualitative and quantitative.
B) mathematical and statistical.
C) judgmental and qualitative.
D) historical and associative.
E) judgmental and associative.

F) A) and B)
G) A) and C)

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Question 43

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Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?

What is focus forecasting?

________ is a time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for forecasts.

Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last ten weeks.Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4,and an initial forecast of 28.0 for period 1.Calculate the MAD.Calculate the tracking signal.What do you recommend?

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table.Compute the four seasonal factors.

Mean squared error and exponential smoothing are two measures of the overall error of a forecasting model.

________ is a forecasting technique based upon salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

In trend projection,the trend component is the slope of the regression equation.

The ________ measures the strength of the relationship between two variables.

What are the differences between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods?

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the SLOWEST to forecast errors?

Distinguish between a weighted moving average model and an exponential smoothing model.

Give an example,other than a restaurant or other food-service firm,of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day. )Explain.

A small family-owned restaurant uses a seven-day moving average model to determine manpower requirements.These forecasts need to be seasonalized because each day of the week has its own demand pattern.The seasonal indices for each day of the week are: Monday 0.445;Tuesday 0.791;Wednesday 0.927;Thursday 1.033;Friday 1.422;Saturday 1.478;and Sunday 0.903.Average daily demand based on the most recent moving average is 194 patrons.What is the seasonalized forecast for each day of next week?

A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year (y-hat)is related to the number of employees (x)by the regression equation: y-hat = 3.3 + 0.049x.The r-squared value is 0.68.The regression is based on 20 annual observations.The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year.How many accidents do you project? How much confidence do you have in that forecast?

Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise)in forecasting.That is,how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting?

________ forecasts are concerned with rates of technological progress,which can result in the birth of exciting new products,requiring new plants and equipment.

Given an actual demand this period of 103,a forecast value for this period of 99,and an alpha of .4,what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?