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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 31

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The smoothing constant is a weighting factor used in ________.

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exponentia...

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Question 32

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________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

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Question 33

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What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?

When one constant is used to smooth the forecast average and a second constant is used to smooth the trend,the forecasting method is ________.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a

Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk,packages them,and sells them to retail stores.They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items.The following data are for one such item,which is not seasonal. a.Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation). b.Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year.

________ is a measure of overall forecast error for a model.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n)

Forecasts

________ forecasts are concerned with rates of technological progress,which can result in the birth of exciting new products,requiring new plants and equipment.

Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last ten weeks.Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4,and an initial forecast of 28.0 for period 1.Calculate the MAD.What do you recommend?

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

________ is a forecasting technique based upon salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

What are the differences between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods?

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table.Compute the four seasonal factors.

List and briefly describe the three major types of forecasts.

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,150,and 130.The average over all months is 190.The approximate seasonal index for July is

Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain.Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed,a forecast of 172 items for that period,and a smoothing constant of 0.3,what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.